Blue World Economic Index®
Scale: -2 to +2
Release Date: Usually the Last or First Business Day of Each Month
Release Site: www.blueworldassetmanagers.com
Management Value: Critical
The economy is maintaining a high level of performance but there were definitely some notable pullbacks in November 2018. Leading that list was Real Estate which continues to take a drubbing at the hands of the Fed and their here-to-fore ill-advised advancement of rate policy. This past meeting offered some hope for a hold for a while.
There was a bit of a mismatch in Wholesale Trade where the monthly inventory build outpaced sales but the year-on-year rate says more stocking is still needed. This would be less noticeable had it not been for the over sized contribution by Inventory to the latest GDP update.
There was a hiccup in the Richmond Fed report which showed declines in Employment and New Orders components and that will need to be monitored.
We obviously expect ebbs and flows in any economic conditions, but the shear strength of the current conditions makes any down blip noticeable. The fact is, however, the economy remains very strong and growing.
Six of eight major categories remain in positive territory as Real Estate slipped ever so fractionally back into red ink. Hopefully some Fed restraint will help. Inflation remains the anchor of the negative column, but it did make a material move positive in November. Consumer, Employment, General Measures, Manufacturing, Retail and Services all remain very comfortably positive with Services leading the way at a whopping .84!
Look for the Blue World Jobs Report out this Friday the 7th and Matt will break it down live on WBBM’s Noon Business Hour in Chicago at 12:09p Central, streaming, AM 780 and 105.9FM, and the Podcast will post later in the day.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The official release sites should be cross referenced. The index assignments represent the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on the index.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Monday, December 03, 2018