Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis
Release Date: Usually the first Friday of each month
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Market Sensitivity: VERY HIGH
Management Value: VERY HIGH
Friday, December 02, 2011
Brain surgery is not rocket science to a brain surgeon©
We’re short on time today due to an engagement but this won’t take long. The number of jobs rose by 120k. That was below the consensus estimate of 125k and continues to be inadequate to keep pace with new entrants much less gain ground on the jobs lost. Have you seen the futures graphs? The headline was reacted to and then the details were read. There are some Europe concerns mixed in but the 8.6%, down from 9.0% is what will get the attention. This, unfortunately, continues to be reflective of the mathematical phenomenon of an increase in the number of jobs but a decrease in those counted as looking for work hence a lower ratio in spite of a still ailing labor market . The number of marginally attached and discouraged workers rose.
Despite what some other authors are already calling a “fishy” drop in the overall rate the unemployed rate for those over 25 with a Bachelor’s degree or higher, (our favorite barometer) remained unchanged. Manufacturing added very little and showed a much smaller increase than last month. The construction industry lost more jobs.
The work week hours stayed the same (we need to see it lengthening) and wages actually pulled back slightly.
As always, folks, it’s not rocket science. Global uncertainty coupled with stifling regulation from a business unfriendly administration will simply not stir confidence and demand. That’s not a political position. It’s an economic reality.
We look for continued volatility in the jobs report and other major economic releases over the next few months with concurrent market gyrations exacerbated by global, particularly European, news. We will keep the defense on the field, one eye on the U.S. , one eye abroad and both hands on the wheel.
Thanks for reading and, please, stay tuned…
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, December 02, 2011