Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis 06-03-2011

Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date:  Usually the first Friday of each month

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Market Sensitivity: VERY HIGH

Management Value: VERY HIGH

Friday, June 03, 2011

Brain surgery is not rocket science to a brain surgeon ©

If we were feeling lazy we would change the date on the analysis from last month, publish and head for the lake…

But, unfortunately, it’s worse than that.  Do we need to say the “experts” were surprised?  The jobs pick-up continues to be woefully inadequate to keep pace with the current jobless much less the new entrants to the work force.  The BLS summary paragraphs are somewhat perplexing, if not misleading, citing “continued” improvement in some areas that the stats just don’t support.  Any improvements continue to be more a result of slower layoffs than “new” jobs being created.  Even that phenomenon coupled with the number of those falling off the reporting radar, which led to statistical drops in the overall rate but not a real drop in the number of unemployed over the past year, was not enough to prevent a rise from 9.0% in April to 9.1% in May.

We object to the characterization that a rise of .1% equates to little change.  First of all, .1% of the total work force is one helluva lot of real people who are struggling and suffering.  Secondly, the manner in which a drop of .1% is heralded as a policy vindication and a sure sign things are looking up betrays an unconscionable hypocrisy on the part of many authors and commentators.  This is a summary of the employment status of real people in the United States.  Analysis of the objective data and what it says about policy effectiveness and business prognostication is appropriate.  Spin is not.  It is what it is and it continues to be bad.  We can’t stress it enough, folks.  We don’t care what works.  All we care is that it works.  Policy matters.

Here are a few “low-lights” from the data:

Our favorite barometer, the unemployed rate for those 25+ with a Bachelor’s or higher, remains at a staggering 4.5%.  This is one of those areas the BLS suggested showed improvement, but we don’t see it in the numbers.  This month we think it is appropriate to break this down a little further:

Eligible job seekers: (Worse/Better/Unch refers to the total unemployment rate for the group identified)

  • All 16+: Worse
  • Teenagers 16-19: Better
  • Men 20+: Worse
  • Women 20+: Worse
  • White: Unch.
  • Black: Worse (and worst in group; since Mar. 15.5%, 16.1%, 16.2%)
  • Asian: Worse
  • Hispanic: Worse
  • 25+
    • Less than a H.S. diploma: Worse
    • H.S. diploma: Better
    • Some college or associates: Worse (up.5% from April to 8.0)
    • Bachelor’s or higher: Unch.

Average weekly hours worked and overtime remained flat and the number unemployed for more than 27 weeks increased.  Health, education and social services remain the bright spot but that is roughly analogous to a firefly in the middle of a corn field on a cloudy night..during a lunar eclipse.  There is a lot of additional data that could be cited but we think we get it.

Anyone truly surprised by this data is either not paying attention or has achieved “expert” status.  GDP was just revised downward (as Blue World has been telling us it would), the currency is weakening (as Blue World has been telling us it would), and inflation is becoming an ever-increasing problem (as Blue World has been telling us it would), so let’s dispense with the contrived shock and awe, innocent ignorance, blatant stupidity, and dishonest analysis and opinion, shall we?  What our elected officials are doing is not working.  There is no crime in that.  The crime comes when the elected officials see it isn’t working and refuse to change course.  When it’s this bad everyone can see it.  Everyone can also see there is no sign of a shift in policy.  Thinking folks have no choice but to assume an elite few have it just the way they intended.

As always, we appreciate the time you take to read us.  Please, stay tuned…

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Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced.  The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

© Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, June 03, 2011

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