Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis
Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Market Impact: Usually Very High
Management Value: Critical
Friday, March 04, 2016 for February 2016
Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©
Not bad, and by that we mean mixed again. There are some higher level plusses that don’t have the kind of support we’d like to see in the detail, but we promise it has been worse.
The headline is 242k, with 230k coming from the private sector, and the prior two months were revised higher. The labor force posted a nice gain of 555k, and the Participation Rate, while still sub 63, notched a third straight month of improvement. Also, the Not in Labor Force total fell again. The fact that the stats roughly balance gives us the flat unemployment rate, but we hope by now we all realize the rate is not worth considering.
On the disappointing side the work week got a little shorter, and earnings pulled back a bit. The total of those reporting as Unemployed actually rose, and the manufacturing diffusion index fell to a contractionary 48.7%. We were hoping for a little better considering the late, unexpected strength from the Durables and Production reports. You can see more on that in the Blue World Economic Index™.
The general data suggest that the Labor Market Conditions Index will remain muted on Monday, and that is what the Fed puts a lot of stock in when considering policy. If we’re looking for predictions Blue World does not feel there will be enough here for another hike at this month’s meeting but, then again, we still don’t feel there was enough for the last one.
Watch for updates from us on Twitter (@BlueWorldMatt) during the month as relevant data is released and the Blue World Economic Index™ will post at the first of the month. Have a prosperous March!
Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.