Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis
Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Market Impact: Usually Very High
Management Value: Critical
Date Friday, July 7, 2017
Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©
Better, not stellar! June 2017 was a much better month for jobs than May, but that’s a pretty low bar. As Matt said on CBS Chicago last Monday, you could have knocked us over with a feather at the rate raise. Last month’s jobs report fed the doves, and we saw no chance of a hike. We were dying to see the minutes so we’d get a hint of what they saw that we didn’t. The answer is “nothing.” This raise was all on spec and what they “think” will happen with inflation considering the “strengthening” in the job market so, clearly, the consumer will start spending soon and inflation will, ya know, show up. Evidence schmevidence!
So, what about today? At the headline we saw 222k net new hires less the 35k added to government payrolls, the private sector logged 187k net new jobs. Better? Sure, but it’s kinda like a pro golfer shooting par on a par 5 under 500 yards. In other words, no damage done and yet disappointing. There were solid improvements in the key indicators we follow like the Civilian Labor Force size, Total Employed, and the Participation Rate. There was also a decrease in the Not in Labor Force number, which has remained below 95M for the year.
BUT…
The Participation Rate remains below 63% (It was 64%+ back in 2011, and we were horrified then!) While the Not in Labor Force numbers do appear to have leveled off, the chart has not started a down trend yet, and that is what makes characterizations of “full employment” ludicrous. When looking at the U-6 line of Table A-15 of the report that takes those and several other labor underutilization stats into account, the true unemployment rate is still 9%.
Weekly hours and wages also showed some life, and the workweek has now touched 34.5 hours twice in three months. It’s been a while since we’ve seen that. Hourly and Weekly wages posted 2.5% and 2.8% year-on-year gains, respectively.
Better? Yes. Stellar? No. Good enough for a rate hike? NO! The hard data to support it just isn’t there. Have a look at the Blue World Economic Index® for more detail June’s economic reporting.
We hope 4th of July was fun and safe. See you back here in August.
As always, thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…
Release Site: www.bls.gov