Blue World Economic Index®
Scale: -2 to +2
Release Date: Usually the Last or First Business Day of Each Month
Release Site: www.blueworldassetmanagers.com
Management Value: Critical
Tuesday, August 1, 2017
Analysis
The Blue World Economic Index® for July 2017 was essentially flat for the month showing just a .01 improvement to -.09 from a -.10 in June. Our read is that the economy wants to let loose, but the continued and mounting uncertainty over everything from policy to Putin is just too big an anchor to allow for take off. We were, frankly, surprised that consumer and business optimism continue to hold up so well in the absence of any hard data to support the anecdotal measures, but the momentum slip is palpable. If something tangible doesn’t happen soon, those numbers simply won’t hold. The Fed would do well to react to actual economic data as opposed to anecdotal survey measures and the stock market in considering further rate moves.
The Numbers
Of the eight Major Categories Consumer Measures, Inflation, and Retail pulled back fractionally while Employment, General Measures, Real Estate, and Services made small moves to the North, where General Measures was the only double-digit gainer at .14. Overall Manufacturing was unchanged as the Fed subgroup resumed its climb by .12 to .53 and the Non-fed subgroup lost .03.
We are now evenly split with four Major Categories under water and four in positive territory. Employment, Inflation, Retail, and Services are still sporting red ink while Consumer, General, Manufacturing and Real Estate are positive, all of which made small advances except Consumer Measures which fell a noticeable .07 down to .15
The BLS jobs numbers will be out this Friday the 4th and we will be here in our assigned seats to read, analyze, and report. See you then.
Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The official release sites should be cross referenced. The index assignments represent the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on the index.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Tuesday, August 01, 2017