Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis
Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Market Impact: Usually Very High
Management Value: Critical
Friday, August 04, 2017
Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©
GREAT…if it holds…but some WONDERFUL news was hiding in the weeds!
Today’s release provides plenty of reason for OPTIMISM. Are you paying attention, Fed? That is the only downside we can see to this report, the potential overzealousness of the Fed in pursuing another rate hike. Yes, this is a fine report, but it is still in the overwhelming minority of hard data reports hinting at any strength or momentum. Additionally, one report does not a movement make. We need to see this kind of strength sustained and built upon before declaring “improvement.” We can’t just keep sprinkling a good report in here and there with other mediocre to poor reports and be gung ho about raising rates. So, that’s our cautionary note. Now, let’s go enjoy the numbers!
The headline is net 209k, and of those 205k are Private Sector gains. That’s the first time since February that the private sector topped 200k. The Labor Force, Total Employed, and Participation rate were all up. Please continue to be mindful, however, that participation is still below 63%, but let’s not let that be rain on today’s parade. Up is up. The Not in Labor Force tally is down two months in a row and tantalizing us with a suggestion of flattening. That’s the graph this month. Total Unemployed is essentially flat to June. Wages were good for the month, still rather muted for the year, and the work week stayed level.
Revisions essentially netted out, but the big news deeper in hiding was that we just saw our first reliable hint that reality is catching up to sentiment in Manufacturing as we’ve had two big months of gains in a row to coincide with and validate the anecdotal Regional Fed reports in the Blue World Economic Index®. Services were also squarely in the win column for July.
All in all, two decent months in a row where July is a little better than June and this will provide a much needed lift to the Employment category of the Blue World Economic Index® for August, which will post at the end of the month. See you then!
Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.