Blue World Economic Index® Report for July 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brief Explanation 

Blue World Economic Index®

Scale: -2 to +2

Release Date:  Usually the Last or First Business Day of Each Month

Release Site: www.blueworldassetmanagers.com

Management Value: Critical

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

PODCAST

Analysis

The Blue World Economic Index® for July 2017 was essentially flat for the month showing just a .01 improvement to -.09 from a -.10 in June. Our read is that the economy wants to let loose, but the continued and mounting uncertainty over everything from policy to Putin is just too big an anchor to allow for take off. We were, frankly, surprised that consumer and business optimism continue to hold up so well in the absence of any hard data to support the anecdotal measures, but the momentum slip is palpable. If something tangible doesn’t happen soon, those numbers simply won’t hold. The Fed would do well to react to actual economic data as opposed to anecdotal survey measures and the stock market in considering further rate moves.

The Numbers

Of the eight Major Categories Consumer Measures, Inflation, and Retail pulled back fractionally while Employment, General Measures, Real Estate, and Services made small moves to the North, where General Measures was the only double-digit gainer at .14. Overall Manufacturing was unchanged as the Fed subgroup resumed its climb by .12 to .53 and the Non-fed subgroup lost .03.

We are now evenly split with four Major Categories under water and four in positive territory. Employment, Inflation, Retail, and Services are still sporting red ink while Consumer, General, Manufacturing and Real Estate are positive, all of which made small advances except Consumer Measures which fell a noticeable .07 down to .15

The BLS jobs numbers will be out this Friday the 4th and we will be here in our assigned seats to read, analyze, and report.  See you then.

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release sites should be cross referenced.  The index assignments represent the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on the index.

 

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Tuesday, August 01, 2017

 

Blue World Employment Report Analysis 6-2-2017

Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: Usually Very High

Management Value: Critical

Friday June 2, 2017

Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©

 

 

 

 

FOUL!

Wow, it looks bad. Usually the issues are confined to the headline, but the filth filters right through to the cave floor this time. It is hard to imagine a report that diverges more radically from every other employment measure over the last month. We’ve seen the report become politicized and lose some of its validity at the headlines, like the Unemployment Rate, but usually the details paint a different picture. Not this time.

The only two positives were the number reporting as “Unemployed.” That total fell by 195k. The other was the Private Sector total which tallied 147k, 9k higher than the headline of 138k because the government shed 9k for May. That’s some perspective on how bad this report is, 147k for the Private Sector counts as “good” news!

The balance of the Blue World key indicators including Labor Force size, Participation Rate, total Employed, and Not in Labor Force moved the wrong direction and in almost implausible magnitudes. This will likely have an impact on the Labor Market Conditions Index, which updated and revised to the North at the beginning of last month. We released an update based on that, and we will do so again next week if warranted. Hours and wages are uninspiring.

This report coupled with the inflation reports of the past month should assure a current victory for the doves at the Fed, so don’t look for any additional rate hikes coming out of the next FOMC meeting.

What does it mean for the direction of the economy? There are so many balls in the air, Russian ties, Paris Accord, Travel Ban litigation, to name just a few headliners. The ones not getting a lot of play are the regulation roll-backs occurring. If you’re wondering why the markets continue to run in all this turmoil and uncertainty we can look there. Congress hasn’t gotten much done, but restrictions and burdens on business are being reduced at a very brisk clip. If anyone in a position to impact that process is listening, we need to add the Fiduciary Rule to the list of evils that need to be vanquished.

Here is a link to our first ever podcast for the Blue World Economic Index® report released yesterday. It, also, has some interesting findings, including on employment.

Matt will be live discussing some investment ideas and market conditions on CBS Chicago’s “Noon Business Hour”, AM780 and 105.9FM, on Monday at about 12:50p Central.

Interesting times, indeed. We’ll keep an eye on it and report back here next month!

Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…

 

Release Site: www.bls.gov

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

 

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, June 02, 2017