Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 8/4/2017

Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: Usually Very High

Management Value: Critical

Friday, August 04, 2017 

Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©

GREAT…if it holds…but some WONDERFUL news was hiding in the weeds!

Today’s release provides plenty of reason for OPTIMISM. Are you paying attention, Fed? That is the only downside we can see to this report, the potential overzealousness of the Fed in pursuing another rate hike. Yes, this is a fine report, but it is still in the overwhelming minority of hard data reports hinting at any strength or momentum. Additionally, one report does not a movement make. We need to see this kind of strength sustained and built upon before declaring “improvement.” We can’t just keep sprinkling a good report in here and there with other mediocre to poor reports and be gung ho about raising rates. So, that’s our cautionary note. Now, let’s go enjoy the numbers!

The headline is net 209k, and of those 205k are Private Sector gains. That’s the first time since February that the private sector topped 200k. The Labor Force, Total Employed, and Participation rate were all up. Please continue to be mindful, however, that participation is still below 63%, but let’s not let that be rain on today’s parade. Up is up. The Not in Labor Force tally is down two months in a row and tantalizing us with a suggestion of flattening. That’s the graph this month. Total Unemployed is essentially flat to June. Wages were good for the month, still rather muted for the year, and the work week stayed level.

Revisions essentially netted out, but the big news deeper in hiding was that we just saw our first reliable hint that reality is catching up to sentiment in Manufacturing as we’ve had two big months of gains in a row to coincide with and validate the anecdotal Regional Fed reports in the Blue World Economic Index®. Services were also squarely in the win column for July.

All in all, two decent months in a row where July is a little better than June and this will provide a much needed lift to the Employment category of the Blue World Economic Index® for August, which will post at the end of the month. See you then!

 

Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…

 

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

 

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, August 04, 2017

Blue World Economic Index® Report for July 2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brief Explanation 

Blue World Economic Index®

Scale: -2 to +2

Release Date:  Usually the Last or First Business Day of Each Month

Release Site: www.blueworldassetmanagers.com

Management Value: Critical

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

PODCAST

Analysis

The Blue World Economic Index® for July 2017 was essentially flat for the month showing just a .01 improvement to -.09 from a -.10 in June. Our read is that the economy wants to let loose, but the continued and mounting uncertainty over everything from policy to Putin is just too big an anchor to allow for take off. We were, frankly, surprised that consumer and business optimism continue to hold up so well in the absence of any hard data to support the anecdotal measures, but the momentum slip is palpable. If something tangible doesn’t happen soon, those numbers simply won’t hold. The Fed would do well to react to actual economic data as opposed to anecdotal survey measures and the stock market in considering further rate moves.

The Numbers

Of the eight Major Categories Consumer Measures, Inflation, and Retail pulled back fractionally while Employment, General Measures, Real Estate, and Services made small moves to the North, where General Measures was the only double-digit gainer at .14. Overall Manufacturing was unchanged as the Fed subgroup resumed its climb by .12 to .53 and the Non-fed subgroup lost .03.

We are now evenly split with four Major Categories under water and four in positive territory. Employment, Inflation, Retail, and Services are still sporting red ink while Consumer, General, Manufacturing and Real Estate are positive, all of which made small advances except Consumer Measures which fell a noticeable .07 down to .15

The BLS jobs numbers will be out this Friday the 4th and we will be here in our assigned seats to read, analyze, and report.  See you then.

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release sites should be cross referenced.  The index assignments represent the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on the index.

 

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Tuesday, August 01, 2017