Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 04-06-2018

Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: Usually Very High

Management Value: Critical

Date: Friday, April 06, 2018 

Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©

Cooling was expected but this was kinda weird. Once we look at all the net-nets it was a mixed report with an unmistakable positive lean even though the headline shows a substantial miss. Getting deep in the weeds and doing a lot more math than usual was key to understanding what this one really said. There are, of course, already thousands of “expert” “analyses” out there by both sides of the political aisle and financial industry with their own slants, so as always, read those for amusement and stay here for the actionable intelligence needed for strategic management decision making!

At the headline we see 103k whereas most consensus estimates called for 175k to 200k. The good news is that of the 103k, 102k were Private Sector adds which also picked up a positive revision from last month pushing the YTD 2018 average over 200k. Most of the positive developments from our go-to stats in last month’s monster report held up and wages hinted at some pressure. The work week length was steady and Manufacturing was a big winner again. The Diffusion Indexes returned from outer space but remained comfortably (and more sustainably) above 60. The table above shows annual averages back to 2014 for some of those key stats and you can see which are stubborn and which are making progress.

Concerns? A few. Retail got beaten up and that is consistent with yesterday’s Challenger layoffs report. Participation Rate and Not in Labor Force numbers continue to disappoint and there were too many Part-Time jobs but that tends to be volatile. We don’t think that this will force the hawks from their perch at the Fed so hopefully they’ll leave rates alone a while longer but they seem to look for any excuse these days.

Overall it was a good March for the economy. The Blue World Economic Index® made a nice move led by Employment and Manufacturing. Services looked good with rare and welcome tri-confirmation of strength despite slight pullbacks in ISM and PMI’s non-manufacturing reports.

From our consulting point of view the light is either Red or Yellow. We’ve never seen a pure Green light but we have perceived some blue tint coming in of late so there may be some Green out there…but we’ll never admit it!

Have a great April and we’ll see you back here in May.

Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…

Release Site: www.bls.gov

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

 

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, April 06, 2018

Blue World Economic Index® Report for March 2018

Brief Explanation

 

Blue World Economic Index®

Scale: -2 to +2

Release Date:  Usually the Last or First Business Day of Each Month

Release Site: www.blueworldassetmanagers.com

Management Value: Critical

Date: Tuesday, April 03, 2018

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis

The economy is still on the move according to the March 2018 readings. The index advanced led by substantial moves in Employment (no surprise considering the February Jobs Report) and…wait for it…Manufacturing where the advance was entirely from the more objective Non-fed sub-group.

There continue to be some nagging risks, economic and political, out there including, of course, the Fed, lack of inflationary pressure, trade war fears, and – – can’t believe we’re saying this – – porn stars, but the economy appears increasingly resilient in the face of all of it.

The Numbers

The table showing the March numbers is above and we can tell you that April appears off to a strong start. Let’s see if it holds!

The Blue World Jobs Report Analysis will be out Friday morning. See you there!

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release sites should be cross referenced.  The index assignments represent the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on the index.

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Tuesday, April 03, 2018