Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis
Release Date: Usually the first Friday of each month
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Market Sensitivity: VERY HIGH
Management Value: VERY HIGH
Friday, September 05, 2014
Brain surgery is not rocket science to a brain surgeon©
Well, we can’t fall back on the copy-paste-repeat line this month. The jobs report is out, and it is ugly. Predictably so for the non-experts, but the experts are “surprised” again because they think the last couple of reports showed improvement, promise, and yes, even the “r” word; RECOVERY. If you missed it you can review the reasons they were wrong by reading last month’s summary at Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 8-1-2014
The headlines report 142k net new jobs out there, but the number we care about is only 134k because 8k are government hires. The unemployment rate improved to 6.1%, but we’ve well established that the unemployment rate has lost all credibility as a proxy for the health of the labor market. So has the number of new jobs number, for that matter. We have some updated graphs for you today that illustrate the continuing phenomenon supporting those observations.
The top graph shows the employed line rising against a stagnant labor force line giving us the bogus improvement in the unemployment rate. This is confirmed by the participation rate.
Do we need to say that the “Not in Labor Force Line” should not demonstrate a stronger, smoother, more consistent trend than the “Labor Force” growth line…
The work force is 64k smaller than it was in July, and the participation rate has equaled its all-time record low (62.8%) for the sixth time in 11 months. The length of the work week has been range bound between 34.3 and 34.5 hours, incredibly, since January of 2012. Weekly construction hours pulled back again and overtime required by manufacturing remains at 3.4 hours per week, down a tenth from its pathetic three-year high of 3.5 hours.
While we expect some more downward revision, at present wages for the total private work force are up .2%, 1%, and 2% for one, six and twelve months, respectively. Recovery numbers? We think not. So, wages are still boring but at least reasonably pacing current inflation. When the pressure from their poop in the sewer exceeds the weight of the FOMC members standing on the manhole cover that will change…dramatically.
Thanks for reading and, please, stay tuned…
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, September 05, 2014