Blue World Economic Index®
Scale: -2 to +2
Release Date: Usually the first Business Day of Each Month
Release Site: www.blueworldassetmanagers.com
Management Value: Critical
Thursday, December 01, 2016
The Blue World Economic Index® showed material improvement for the November 2016 report while still landing solidly in negative territory at -.28. Yes, much of the reporting posted after the election, but we need to remember that most of the data was actually collected well in advance. The December report will give a much clearer picture of whether the economy is following the public markets, whose momentum will be closely watched. The weekly data, however, was more indicative of post-election reaction particularly in the Consumer category, via the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort report, whose northerly movement in the second two thirds of the month was unmistakable, yielding an average of 42.2 in October and 45 for November. While the markets made their moves, the data suggests it was more on the backs of retail traders (TD Ameritrade IMX), as institutional investors (State Street Investor Confidence) were more cautiously contemplating the combined implications of Brexit, POTUS, and further EU escape rumblings in places like Germany and Italy.
Of the eight major categories, six were still negative, but there was notable improvement in five including Consumer, Employment, General, Retail, and Manufacturing which included a bump to the Fed sub-group.
We end most of our reports by pointing out that policy matters…and these aren’t working. We firmly believe there is no sin in being wrong. The sin is committed when we refuse to recognize we were wrong and fail to change policy in response. We think it is safe to say…we’re about to get a look at the effects of some VERY different policy!