Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis
Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Market Impact: Usually Very High
Management Value: Critical
Friday, June 03, 2016
Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©
When it’s bad it’s bad, and this is bad without a scintilla of positive or even hopeful news. We keep saying “policy matters.” Yesterday our esteemed President spoke of the risk of losing the “progress” we’ve made, so we suppose he feels the majority of us have no interest in returning to the days of three percent plus growth in GDP, a healthy labor market, and men being expected to use the men’s room… He did, after all, see these figures yesterday.
The headline is devastating, and the detail is worse. The unemployment rate fell because the labor force shrank in much larger magnitude (-458k) than jobs were added (+38k), thus moving the lines in the above graph closer together, giving us an artificially low unemployment rate as has been the case now for an entire administration. The numbers for the private sector are worse. There were only 25k net hires, and of the 59k in downward revisions to the two prior months 58k came off of the private sector.
The Participation Rate has erased five months’ worth of gains, The Not in Labor Force total exploded by a breath-stealing 664 thousand, and Part Time for Economic Reasons was up almost a half million.
The Blue World Economic Index® remains in negative territory with stunningly impressive correlation to the Fed’s Beige Book, which eliminated any reference to growth as “moderate,” leaving only “modest” to describe what should be the world’s greatest economy.
We have been told of seven-year long “recoveries” that aren’t. We have been directed to accept abject mediocrity. We have suffered the redefining of terms like “recession” to fit a narrative that is dishonest, inaccurate, and causes continued, direct, and real harm to those who work, those who employ, and those who invest in a sincere effort to raise standards and improve lives. The data points reviewed above and going back many years now eviscerate that narrative. Defense is still the order of the day for business. A rate hike? We think not…but ya just never know…
Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…
Release Site: www.bls.gov
Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.