Tag Archives: Wealth

Blue World Economic Index™ for November 2015

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Brief Explanation

Blue World Economic Index™

Released Tuesday, December 01, 2015 for November 2015

The Blue World Economic Index™ was essentially flat in November 2015 ending at -.21. The biggest drop was in Consumer mood falling .15 from .53 to .38 since October and the most improved was Services up .17 from 0.0 last month.

The economy remains listless with demand weak and consumer mood waning a bit.  We don’t know what the Fed will do with rates but there are lawmakers from both parties lobbying hard against one.  We agree.  A rate hike happens in response to an accelerating economy in an effort to guard against runaway growth and the associated problems with inflation.  There is no clear evidence of either so a rate hike now would be imprudent.

November 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release sites should be cross referenced.  The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 11/06/2015

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Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date:  Usually the first Friday of each month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: VERY HIGH

Management Value: CRITICAL

Friday, November 06, 2015

Not stellar but better!

What does that mean?  We have by no means turned a corner, but at least the bleeding stopped for October.  The 271k total is very respectable, and the private sector number is 268k.  There were net +16k revisions to August and September for the private sector totals which, while better than a down revision, comes nowhere near making the numbers acceptable.  For comparison, including today’s data, the average add for the private sector for all of 2015 YTD is 207k while the average for the last 3 months is 181k.

The Not in Labor Force tally fell by 97k in an unusual and refreshing pause in the explosion but still leaving the number of truly unemployed Americans at 94.5M.  The Civilian Labor Force grew by 313k interrupting a three month slide, which is a plus but still doesn’t get us anywhere near the 2015 high, which was reached in May but substantially better than October of 2014.  The work week for the private sector remains flat at 34.5 hours for October, which is the average for 2015 YTD.  The big winner however is Construction, which saw a sizable jump in both hours and pay in October, which is consistent with other measures released during the month.  The Diffusion Indexes for the total private sector and manufacturing both saw significant improvements this month, especially manufacturing which eked out an expansionary 51.9 (50 is break-even) after spending the prior two months deep in contraction below 40.

So, why were the dismal Participation Rate and seemingly great Unemployment Rate essentially unchanged?  If you read us regularly you know the answer…  The Civilian Labor Force grew by 313k, and the net number of new hires was 271k.  That narrow delta just won’t move the needle that much.

Now let’s get to what everybody wants to know…What will the Fed do in December?  That is FINALLY a great question.  There is plenty of ammunition in this report for the hawks and plenty for the doves. We sit squarely in the dove’s camp, because this is just one mixed report in a pool of weak reports.  The economy is not ready for a hike.  We believe this will be the closest vote yet, and while we do not offer a prediction on the outcome we will offer this prediction:  The two most common words heard at the next meeting will be…

 

“YEAH, BUT”

 

 

Thanks for reading and, please, stay tuned…

FYI – later today we will post out first podcast of the Blue World Jobs Report Analysis.  A link will be sent when it’s up.

Release Site: www.bls.gov

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced.  The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, November 06, 2015

Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 10/2/2015

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Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date:  Usually the first Friday of each month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: VERY HIGH

Management Value: CRITICAL

Friday, October 02, 2015

pinnochio

Last month some moron at the Fed suggested that at 5.1% unemployment the nation was near full employment and a rate hike was on track for September! Pinocchio must have left motivational speaking and headed over to the Fed.  Our apologies to inanimate, wooden puppets.  We did not mean to suggest you are stupid enough to work for the Fed…

The following contains graphic statistics and strong language that may be too intense for some managers. Business leader discretion is advised. 

We’re afraid it’s even worse than it looks.  Weak numbers from the prior two months were revised down by 59k.  That’s bad enough, but the private sector numbers came down 69k.  The private sector total for September 2015 was only 118k.  The labor force hemorrhaged another 350k potential workers, and the Not in Labor Force statistic exploded by an unbelievable 579k driving the number of unemployed Americans to more than 94.6M, cratering an already record low participation rate from 62.6 to 62.4!

Wages pulled back.  The work week got shorter, and the diffusion index for all industries fell to a precarious 52.9 (50+ indicates expansion.) In addition, manufacturing fell spectacularly into contraction over the last 2 months.

Meanwhile, our esteemed administration is pursuing EPA and tax policy that will further cripple the economy, while Russian bombers are hitting Syria and telling the U.S. to leave the region, as our President lectures us on domestic gun control referring to himself over 28 times in a speech about the tragedy in Oregon…

Full employment?  Rate hike?  International respect of America?  Only in a fairy tale, my friends.

Thanks for reading and, please, stay tuned…

Release Site: www.bls.gov

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced.  The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, October 02, 2015

Blue World Economic Index® for September 2015

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Brief Explanation

Blue World Economic Index™

Released Thursday, October 01, 2015 for September 2015

The Blue World Economic Index™ came in at .2 for September, 2015 continuing its meander around zero indicating an economy stuck in the mud just waiting for something to happen.  Of the major categories employment and manufacturing are performing the worst.  This is in spite of the media hype trumpeting gains in the labor market as a prime driver of strong consumer sentiment.

September 2015 Graph

 

 

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release sites should be cross referenced.  The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Thursday, October 01, 2015

Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 9-4-2015

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Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date:  Usually the first Friday of each month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: VERY HIGH

Management Value: CRITICAL

Friday, September 04, 2015

Brain surgery is not rocket science to a brain surgeon©

The Truth Is Out There…

How can Blue World be in disagreement with so many “experts” when it comes to analyzing these things?  Perhaps we should explain.  How one interprets these reports depends on the angle from which one views them.  An economist looks at it from one point of view, the reporting media is bias-dependent, politicians grab on to what can be spun whichever way they want it perceived…and then there’s us.  We’re the small and mid-sized business owners and managers who are trying to make strategic decisions on our real-life businesses that earn and spend real money by employing real people.  An academic review is not helpful and any kind of spin can lead us to errant conclusions.  No, we need to see it for what it actually is so that we can convert the data into actionable intelligence.  That’s why we’ve begun to publish our internal Blue World Economic Index™.  It allows a view of the economy through over fifty monthly reports that smaller firms just don’t have the time to follow day in and day out but who need the information just the same.

This employment report?  Predictably weak.  There is some legitimate good news.  College football is back!  There is also some in the employment report and it can be found in the wages data.  Year to date and twelve month runs show wages up 1% to 2%.  And that’s the end of it.

There is trumpeting of the upward revisions to June and July, but it is misleading.  Of the 44k in upward revisions only 5k are from the private sector.  The headline is telling us the economy netted 173k new hires in August 2015, but of that only 140k came from the private sector.  The participation rate now boasts three straight months of the “recovery” record low of 62.6 and the number of those Not in the Labor Force has set a new record by exploding over 261k, breaking above 94 million for the first time.  Remember, these people are not counted as unemployed, and their graph has been on an uninterrupted climb since July 2011. That’s the graph this month and that’s why the 5.1 unemployment rate continues to be, uh, fictional.  The diffusion rate in manufacturing cratered 9.3 points to a fully contractionary 41.3.

NILF 9-4-15

Matt will be on CBS radio WBBM in Chicago AM780 and 105.9FM for the Noon Business Hour today at 12:10p C to talk about all this and the podcast will be posted later this evening.  Have a great month!

 

Thanks for reading and, please, stay tuned…

Release Site: www.bls.gov
Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced.  The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, September 04, 2015