Tag Archives: Unemployment

Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 12/02/2016

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Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: Usually Very High

Management Value: Critical

 

Friday, December 02, 2016

Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©

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Yup! The “experts” think it’s good. Of course the “experts’ are not making decisions about hiring, purchasing, borrowing…, ya know, all those things required to run a real business. From that point of view, it’s not good. The headline is 178k, but the private sector only added 156k. The average new hires for the private sector are running well below the 2015 average and below 200k at just 164k per month.

At this point our readers know the words to the “Why did the unemployment rate fall?” song. As has been the case for over seven years, the change in employed has outpaced the change in the labor force, moving the lines closer together to give us an artificially low unemployment rate. As a matter of fact, the Not In Labor Force total raced above the 95M mark driving the Participation Rate down to 62.7, the third worst reading in six years. That’s the graph this month, back to 2011. Recovery, indeed!

There is much ado being made of a pullback in wages from last month, but this really isn’t that big a deal considering the year on year rates remain tolerable. We’ll only get nervous if we see an actual backward trend developing. A bigger concern is the continued absolute stagnation in the workweek as well as a Manufacturing Diffusion Index below 50 for a couple of months in a row. A year ago that number was comfortably above breakeven at 55.1 indicating net expansion of payrolls across the 79 manufacturing industries. Not so in ‘16

Did the analysis seem a bit light (less wonky) this month? Economic data comes to us in three levels of timeliness; quarterly, monthly, and weekly so even the most current information is still lagging. For two administrations now, we too often have ended with the phrase “Policy matters, and these aren’t working.” We have plenty of reason to believe that we are about to see a significant change in policy, and that will render detailed analysis of lagging data largely intellectual for a quarter or so until new policies have had a chance to establish an actual vs. anticipated impact. The Blue World Economic Index®, published yesterday, provides a much broader view of this.

This is the last time we will hit the “Publish” button for the jobs report analysis in 2016. We can’t believe it’s another trip ‘round the sun come to an end. As a friend once said “The days are long but the years are short.” God bless you. Merry Christmas. Happy New Year and we’ll see you on the other side.

 

Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…

 

Release Site: www.bls.gov

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

 

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, December 02, 2016

Blue World Economic Index® for November 2016

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Brief Explanation

 

Blue World Economic Index®

Scale: -2 to +2

Release Date:  Usually the first Business Day of Each Month

Release Site: www.blueworldassetmanagers.com

Management Value: Critical

 

Thursday, December 01, 2016

11-nov-2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Blue World Economic Index® showed material improvement for the November 2016 report while still landing solidly in negative territory at -.28. Yes, much of the reporting posted after the election, but we need to remember that most of the data was actually collected well in advance. The December report will give a much clearer picture of whether the economy is following the public markets, whose momentum will be closely watched. The weekly data, however, was more indicative of post-election reaction particularly in the Consumer category, via the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort report, whose northerly movement in the second two thirds of the month was unmistakable, yielding an average of 42.2 in October and 45 for November. While the markets made their moves, the data suggests it was more on the backs of retail traders (TD Ameritrade IMX), as institutional investors (State Street Investor Confidence) were more cautiously contemplating the combined implications of Brexit, POTUS, and further EU escape rumblings in places like Germany and Italy.

Of the eight major categories, six were still negative, but there was notable improvement in five including Consumer, Employment, General, Retail, and Manufacturing which included a bump to the Fed sub-group.

We end most of our reports by pointing out that policy matters…and these aren’t working. We firmly believe there is no sin in being wrong. The sin is committed when we refuse to recognize we were wrong and fail to change policy in response. We think it is safe to say…we’re about to get a look at the effects of some VERY different policy!

 

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release sites should be cross referenced.  The index assignments represent the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on the index.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Thursday, December 01, 2016

Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 11/04/2016

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Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: Usually Very High

Management Value: Critical

Friday, November 4, 2016

Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©

Weak at the headline and worse in the detail…but some media “experts” are trumpeting the great strength???

After a quicker than usual review of the key factors that we usually cite, we will key on what is the Biggest Unreported (except here) Policy-Driven Cataclysm of the 2016 Employment Situation picture. So here we go…

The headline tells us 161k net new payrolls were added for the month of October, 2016. That number unto itself is unacceptable, but the important number of private sector new hires came in at 142k. The Not in Labor Force number jumped back up by over 400k, and the Participation Rate remains stubbornly and pathetically below 63% of able-bodied Americans participating in the labor force. There was a very large jump in those that work part-time because they could only find part-time work, and the Diffusion Index in manufacturing is again below 50 indicating that of the 79 manufacturing industries, over half are stagnant or reducing their labor force.

So, what’s the Big Cataclysm we’re referring to? Net Jobs Added to the Private Sector. The 2014-2015 average new hires for the Private Sector was 238k per month. That’s not stellar but at least flirts with the estimated requirements to break even on additions to the workforce. In 2016 the average through October has fallen to 163k per month. To get back into the 2014-5 range, the economy would have to add over 500k private sector jobs in November and December. Do we need to tell you that isn’t going to happen?

We are regularly asked, “If it’s as bad as you say then why?”

  • Do we hear things are so great in the media?
  • Why are earnings good?
  • Why is the stock market doing so well?

Three simple answers to three very good questions:

  • The media is agenda driven and has a vested interest in people believing things are good.
  • Earnings are good for mega-companies that trade publicly—It’s not the big companies that are suffering. It is the small and mid-size firms that provide the majority of jobs getting killed by anti-employer policies like tax, benefits, and arbitrarily and unconscionably high minimum wage mandates.
  • The markets have ceased being concerned with economic fundamentals and react to anticipated or announced government action, ours and foreign, particularly China.

Here are three better questions:

  • Why is inflation so low after eight years of “recovery?”
  • Why are there still over 94 Million Americans Not in the Labor Force with an uninterrupted upward trend since 2011?
  • Why won’t the Fed raise rates in spite of so many pressures to do so?

Simple answers (because Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©)

  • Because the diminished work force won’t allow for demand to increase.
  • Because small and mid-sized firms are being regulated out of growth potential.
  • Because the economic data simply don’t support it. (See the previous two bullets)

Yes, we know there are skeptics and cynics out there who are already disagreeing with us and pointing to some positive hints deep in the weeds of this release. But remember, we view this through the eyes of business owners and managers, not financial industry marketers or politicians. Our goal is to help real businesses make real decisions based on data analyzed from their point of view. To that end let’s look at a couple of remedial facts:

  • 2014-2015 Average Private Sector Hires = 238 Thousand per month
  • Mid 2015 – Present: State, County, Municipal mandates for double digit minimum wage
  • December 16, 2015: .25 Fed Rate Hike
  • 2016 Average Private Sector Hires = 163 Thousand per month

That is a staggering reduction of 43%.  Coincidence? We Think Not!

Policy matters, and these aren’t working.

Happy belated Halloween. Congratulations Chicago. Have a safe, wonderful Thanksgiving and we’ll see you at month’s end for the Blue World Economic Index® report.

Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…

Release Site: www.bls.gov

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis. 
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, November 04, 2016

Blue World Economic Index® for September 2016

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Brief Explanation 

 

Blue World Economic Index®

Scale: -2 to +2

Release Date:  Usually the first Business Day of Each Month

Release Site: www.blueworldassetmanagers.com

Management Value: Critical

Friday, September 30, 2016

The following will, at first, seem out of place for this report, but we feel strongly that a distinction needs to be made particularly for our “expert” friends in the regular media. We feel the inclusion will be sufficiently elucidated and justified in paragraph 2.

 

protester

Protesters

 

rioters

Rioters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In an election year the economy is usually high profile, but domestic riots, terrorism, and illegal immigration are taking center stage for very good reason. The problem, of course, is that those things impact the economy in very profound ways. September 2016 is a tragic example of how profound it can be. As viewed through the eyes of an entrepreneur, business owner, and investor of real money (that means outside the markets), September 2016 set an all-time record low for the Blue World Economic Index®.

The composite landed at -.45, with deterioration in six of eight major categories. As we head for November we humbly submit that the result of the last eight year’s policy positions is well documented. If sub 3% GDP, sub 64% employment participation rate, and stifling regulation and taxation are your managerial success accelerators then the choice is clear. If not, equally clear. For those missing our leanings we suggest this is a case where unknown is preferable to known.

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release sites should be cross referenced.  The index assignments represent the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on the index.
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, September 30, 2016

 

Blue World Jobs Report Analysis 08-05-2016

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Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date: Usually on the first Friday of the month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Impact: Usually Very High

Management Value: Critical

 

Friday, August 05, 2016

Brain Surgery is not Rocket Science to a Brain Surgeon©

This is the best report we’ve seen in a long time! Most of the highest value details moved the right direction. Not enough to improve the overall labor or economic picture, but we have to start somewhere. We’ll explain.

Net jobs were positive and the Labor Force grew. The Participation Rate ticked up a tenth, and the number of those Not in the Labor Force fell a bit. The number of those reporting as Unemployed fell while those Employed rose. Wages showed a little life, and there were some positive revisions to the last couple of months. Hours worked are still stubbornly range-bound, but we can’t win ‘em all.

So, what does it mean to business managers trying to make forward decisions?

There is already irrational exuberance in the media about this report, and neither the exuberance nor the irrationality is entirely unjustified this time. Strength is strength, and this report has plenty of it. However, the headline is 255k net new hires, but the private sector accounted for only 217k of those. That keeps the 2016 average sub 200k and well below 2015. There are still over 94 million Americans out of work as corroborated by a Participation Rate at 62.8 percent and wallowing range-bound at historic lows.

What should we be worried about?

If this report heralds a true turning point, we can count on the Fed the screw it up by raising rates too much too soon. This is now a real concern for the September meeting as the hawks are feasting on this data. Trust us on this much, this economy IS NOT in danger of overheating and does not require a restrictive rate hike. You can see more about that at the Blue World Economic Index® Lots more data will come out between now and then. We’ll be watching closely and updating along the way.

In the final analysis this report can and should supply a breath of cautious optimism, but remember, the report is just one report and doesn’t matter unto itself. We’ve seen this head fake before. What matters is the trend, and here’s to hoping this is the end of the current one and the beginning of a new one.

Thanks for reading, and please stay tuned…

 

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced. The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, LTD. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis. 
©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, August 05, 2016