Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis 11-02-2012

Release Date:  Usually the first Friday of each month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Sensitivity: VERY HIGH

Management Value: VERY HIGH

Friday, November 02, 2012

Brain surgery is not rocket science to a brain surgeon©

Boy! It just keeps getting weirder and weirder, doesn’t it?  114,000 jobs and the rate falls by .3% in September and then we get 171,000 jobs and the rate goes UP .1% in October!!??!! WEIRD, right?  Not really.  (The really weird part comes later) It all comes back to what we’ve been saying for almost two years about the relationship between the size of the labor force and the number of those employed and unemployed.  As we detailed in our last post, A Flute with no Holes is not a Flute and a Recovery with no Jobs is not a Recovery, in order to have a true economic recovery we have to have the work force and the number of people working both increasing simultaneously.  In October we finally saw a little bit better growth in the labor force but the number of new jobs just wasn’t enough to keep pace and that’s been the problem all along.  Remember, we need about 250,000 new jobs per month just to break even with the number of those becoming work-eligible.  Of course, there are those that will say that 171,000 is a good step toward that 250k.  The problem is that we’ve seen that step taken before in that last couple of years but there has been no upward pattern established.  It continues to be a series of dips and blips with no sustained trend of growth.

Now, the really weird stuff…

We got 171,000 new jobs and the rate went up .1% to 7.9%.  We get that but what is very unnerving is the following:

  • The number of unemployed workers INCREASED from 12.1M to 12.3M
  • There were sharp increases in those unemployed:
    • Less than 5 weeks (newly unemployed)
    • 5-14 Weeks
    • Over 27 weeks
  • The length of the work week:
    • Remains flat, overall
    • Shortened in:
      • General manufacturing
      • Manufacturing overtime for production workers
  • Hourly and Weekly wages fell across the board with notable decreases in construction and manufacturing

Surprising?  Not if we remembered a GDP report that signaled economic growth at an unacceptable 2% and which will, undoubtedly, be revised lower.

Policy matters and these just aren’t getting it done.  Economically, we don’t care what works as long as it works.  We remain committed to the notion that there is nothing wrong with being wrong.  The crime is in ignoring the objective data telling you that you’re wrong and not changing course.  Regardless of who wins on November 6th, 2012, we hope they see the patterns and offer reasonable strategic modifications to get us back to where we could and should be.  It really won’t take that much.

For over two centuries American men and women have given their lives to protect our right to choose our leaders and transfer power peacefully.  Regardless of your preference, please vote.

Thanks for reading and, please, stay tuned…

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced.  The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, November 02, 2012

A Flute With No Holes Is Not a Flute and A Recovery With No Jobs Is Not a Recovery.

Friday, October 12, 2012

Ignorance is curable. Stupid is forever.©

 

In our jobs report analysis last week we said what we’ve been saying for a long time.  We are not in a “recovery” because there is no such thing as a “recovery” without an expanding labor market.

So, what should a recovery look like?

Several of you e-mailed or called and pointed out that we’ve been demonstrating what a recovery doesn’t look like, but we haven’t really shown what a real recovery does look like. EXCELLENT POINT.  Thank you!

We dropped everything else this week to do the research, compile the data and generate the graphs so you can compare this “recovery” period to those of the past five recessions going back to 1973.

A true economic recovery following a recession necessarily features an expanding labor market.  An expanding labor market consists of two key elements.  One is the number of people reporting as available to work (the civilian labor force) and the other is the number of the civilian labor force members that have a job (total employed).   In order to be in a recovery BOTH of those groups need to demonstrate expansion.

7.8% is not credible because…

As we discussed last week, no one finds a .3% drop in a single month to be credible.  With over 12 million people out of work, 100,000 new jobs just can’t move the needle like that.  Heck, a couple of months ago an increase of 163,000 jobs (since revised lower) sent the unemployment rate up!  How can this be?  Without going into the detail, it is very simple arithmetic.  If the growth in new jobs outpaces the growth of the civilian labor force the percent unemployed will fall even though things aren’t getting better.  So, the labor market is not improving unless the unemployment rate falls in the face of an expanding civilian labor force AND an increase in the number of new hires.  Beyond that, it just doesn’t fit with all the other data out there.  For example, we need about 250,000 new jobs per month just to break even!  Our GDP is at 1.3% (about .9% if we take out inventories).  To get our unemployment rate down to 7.8% our GDP would need to have been about 4%.

Since last we spoke…

We are not conspiracy theorists, but come on…  Are we expected to believe the big upward revision in new government jobs was the portion that was slow to report?  Are we asked to forget that government jobs don’t signal private sector expansion?  We found out that the administration “secured” an agreement with Lockheed Martin to postpone layoff announcements until after the election.  On Thursday 10/11 an equally implausible drop in first-time unemployment benefit claims was trumpeted as the best in four years.  Hours later we learned that California’s count wasn’t included.  When we add that, the numbers aren’t so good and, of course, last week’s numbers were revised up.  Like we said last week, if these are the shenanigans we know about…

OK, so what does a real economic recovery look like?  Below are graphs showing the size of the civilian labor force and the number of employed people from the official beginning month of the recessions going back to 1973.  The graphs extend out for the first forty months of recovery following the official end of each recession which is where we are with the most recent September 2012 jobs report.

♫ ♪ One of These Things is Not Like the Others… ♪ ♫

It makes sense for Big Bird to be a media headliner this week because our analysis is no more complicated than applying the Sesame Street Rule; One of These Things is not Like the Others!!  Please note the movement of the labor force size and the number of employed people.  The current “recovery” profile does not resemble any of the past 5 recoveries as the labor force size is flat.  That’s the key to the falling rate.  The final graph shows the participation rate.  As you will see the participation rate had been quite stable for the prior 4 years and then plummeted during the “recovery.”  This validates the graph showing virtually no material movement in the size of the labor force while jobs are added moving the lines closer together.  This gives us a lower unemployment rate even though the labor market is not improved.

All data for the graphs was acquired from the official Bureau of Labor Statistics historical tables which can be found at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsatabs.htm

 

 

 

This last graph shows the percentage of prospective workers who are actually participating in the labor market.  This is what is meant when you hear about all the people who have given up and left the labor market.

 

 

It’s striking.  Even the recessions that only last a few months demonstrate an increase in labor force size.  It has never been stagnant like it has been for the last forty months!

So, comparing this recession-recovery period with the previous five indicates a dramatic difference between the profiles.

Someone could tell us that this “recovery” is a flute.  If we didn’t know better we might believe it.  We could repeat it.  We could even broadcast it.  But even Big Bird would never be able to blow hard enough to make music with it…because it’s not a flute.

As always, thanks so much for reading.  We hope you enjoyed it and stay tuned…

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Referenced sources should be reviewed.  Any analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, October 12, 2012

 

Messin’ with Markets is More Dangerous than Messin’ with Sasquatch!

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Ignorance is curable. Stupid is forever.©

Messin’ with Markets is More Dangerous than Messin’ with Sasquatch!

Time to Roll Up a Newspaper and Smack the Market “Experts” on the Nose!

GDP is below 2%.  Claims for unemployment benefits are up and get revised higher every week.  A record number of Americans are on government assistance.  Social Security and Disability benefits hit record highs with a full month left in the fiscal year. Consumer comfort, confidence and sentiment are low and falling.  Investor confidence is weak.  Manufacturing is contracting.  The Eurozone is on the brink of financial collapse.  Our national debt is over $16 Trillion. Foreclosures are high and rising.  Terrorists are attacking U.S. Embassies around the world and murdering Americans.  And unemployment is over 8%…for over 40 months…yet, somehow, the Dow is up over 200 points on 9/13/2012 because the Fed announced QE3?

It should be of tremendous concern to everyone who has investments in the public markets that market performance has become SO dependent on government action.  Do you realize that the actions contemplated by governments have become more important to the public markets than business fundamentals?  Governments don’t even have to do anything.  All they have to do is hint that they might do something, and the markets go crazy.  It may be a suggestion that the Europeans may bail out Greece, or it may be the U.S. Fed announcing a new round of stimulus, as is the case today.

Let us explain what Quantitative Easing is in simple terms, then decide if you want your investment nest egg tied to more of it.  In its simplest terms it is trading short term debt for long term debt.  It is the proverbial kick-the-can-down-the-road exercise.  The Fed uses our money (tax receipts) to buy back short term bonds (loans to the government) and refinance them for a longer term.  The massive buy-back causes a drop in interest rates that is expected to stimulate the economy.  It is the exact opposite of what they do during boom times when they think the economy is “overheating” and they want to avoid inflation by artificially raising the interest rates to slow things down.

Folks, we’re telling ya, messin’ with markets is more dangerous than messin’ with Sasquatch!  At some point this will have to revert to being about economic fundamentals.  When it does we recommend having the A-Team defense on the field or watch from the stands because it could be a catastrophe.

We can’t understand the exuberance at any level BECAUSE IT DOESN’T WORK, but we would think that the “experts” who get so giddy about such stupid and detrimental policies would have a learning curve that breaks off 180° somewhere.  After all, we have plenty of evidence that these measures don’t work in the face of the current economic environment.  You know what they say about the definition of insanity being the duplication of effort over and over yet expecting different results?  O.K.  the “experts” are not just morons, they’re insane.

For those of you wondering how we can make such assertions regarding the ineffectiveness of prior actions rendering the current ones “insane”…

GDP is below 2%.  Claims for unemployment benefits are up and get revised higher every week.  A record number of Americans are on government assistance.  Social Security and Disability benefits hit record highs with a full month left in the fiscal year. Consumer comfort, confidence and sentiment are low and falling.  Investor confidence is weak.  Manufacturing is contracting.  The Eurozone is on the brink of financial collapse.  Our national debt is over $16 Trillion. Foreclosures are high and rising.  Terrorists are attacking U.S. Embassies around the world and murdering Americans.  And unemployment is over 8%…for over 40 months…

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Referenced sources should be reviewed.  Any analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Thursday, September 13, 2012

Employment Situation Analysis – 09-07-2012

Blue World Employment Situation Report Analysis

Release Date:  Usually the first Friday of each month

Release Site: www.bls.gov

Market Sensitivity: VERY HIGH

Management Value: VERY HIGH

Friday, September 07, 2012

Brain surgery is not rocket science to a brain surgeon©

The big question facing us this morning is “to graph or not to graph.”  This is one of the worst reports we’ve seen in a while, and that’s up against some pretty stiff competition.  The market silliness is always entertaining, and today is no exception.  The other data-driven graphs are just striking.

The July number was revised down significantly, and that’s consistent with what we said on CBS Radio last month. {Podcast at  http://owl.li/cJ3T1 – starts at 2:30 in} 96,000 net jobs is “only” about 30,000 short of the “expert” consensus, and that is just about the best news we can find no matter how deep we dive into the minutiae.

25+ with a Bachelor’s or higher are still unemployed at over 4%, which was a level unheard of since records have been kept…until the last few years.

The number of people not in the work force continues to balloon, and that’s why the unemployment rate has fallen or remained the same from time to time, not because the labor market is improving.

The work week remains flat overall, but it has fallen to its shortest duration of the year in manufacturing.  That’s not encouraging.  The really big news in this report, which won’t get much play but is very troubling, are the downward revisions to hourly and weekly pay totals in several sectors, including construction and manufacturing.

We’ve decided the graphs would just rub it in, and we have no desire to subject you to them.

Policy matters, folks.  Policy matters.

Thanks for reading, and please, stay tuned…

 

Release Site: www.bls.gov

 

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  The official release site should be cross referenced.  The analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Friday, September 07, 2012

Roads and Bridges…Government Didn’t Build That – He’s Wrong Either Way

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Ignorance is curable. Stupid is forever.©

The quotes used in this post come from a transcript of the subject speech found at: http://owl.li/d7VF8

Roads and Bridges…Government Didn’t Build That – He’s Wrong Either Way

Our esteemed president recently made remarks on the campaign trail that sparked a bit of an uproar from those who have or support those who have built successful businesses.  The quote is, of course,

 “If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”

We should start by answering the defensive claims that Mr. President wasn’t referring to the businesses but rather to the roads and bridges that allow commerce to occur for the business.  That claim is made by expanding the offending quote to include its prequel:

“Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business — you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”

Even if we expand the quote as suggested the defense is still, uh, indefensible.  That’s because there are so many other quotes in the speech that validate that his intent was to say exactly what he is accused of saying.  For example:

“— look, if you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own.”

“You didn’t get there on your own.”

“I’m always struck by people who think, well, it must be because I was just so smart.”

“It must be because I worked harder than everybody else. Let me tell you something — there are a whole bunch of hardworking people out there.”

“If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help.”

“There was a great teacher somewhere in your life.”

“The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.”

The last two make clear that the “someone” he keeps referring to is government.  Public school teachers are government employees.  It also shows he and Al Gore read the same history of the internet.  Government research is NOT responsible for the internet.  That’s a whole different blog post so, please, look it up.

When the speech is taken in total, the message is unmistakably clear.  Successful businesses and the people who founded them are a minor component in the success of the enterprise.  Without luck, being in the right place at the right time, and taking advantage of the other smart, hard workers plus government help in the form of public education, and the liberal sweethearts of roads and bridges there would be no success.  This is completely consistent with the socialistic belief that the only way one becomes successful is to take unfair advantage of the system and the people in it.  For example, another quote from the speech:

“There are a lot of wealthy, successful Americans who agree with me — because they want to give something back.”

The liberals are always talking about the need of successful businesses and people to “give back.”  Think about the psychological implication of that.  The suggestion of the need to give back stems from the desired pre-conceived concept that something has been unjustly taken.  That is patently absurd.  Why is a business successful in the first place?  It is successful because there is a demand for the product or service provided by the business.  Nothing is taken!  The business exists and thrives based on voluntary trade.  Give back?  How about the jobs created by the business and with them the opportunity to learn, advance and improve?  How about all the jobs a private business supports well outside of its own workforce?  If it’s a private sector business, it depends on and is dependent on other private sector businesses for inventory, customers and supplies.  And oh, by the way, all these businesses, their owners and employees are the only source of cash the government has.  Please note, while it is commonplace to refer to tax receipts as “revenues”, they are not.  The government does not produce goods or provide services for voluntary purchase in exchange for legitimate revenue.  It simply taxes the proceeds from private trade and earnings then redistributes the wealth based on a selfish , arbitrary and period-convenient definition of fair.  So please, don’t talk to entrepreneurs, innovators and business owners about “giving back.”  Government should give back to us so we can pay our employees more, invest more, expand our businesses more, employ more people, grow the economy and, therefore, grow opportunity for everyone!

The United States is not a conglomeration of fixed underclasses as the liberals would have us believe.  No one has any guarantee of staying up or down.  No fortune is too big to lose or gain and multiple times in many cases.  Opportunity.  That’s the key.  For a much-expanded explanation of this concept please read what has been our most popular post to date.  It was written in April of 2011 and continues to be read internationally.

Progressives are not Progressive. Capitalists Are!

Class Envy in America – Square Peg and a Round Hole 

http://owl.li/d809Q

He’s Wrong Either Way

Debunking the defensive claim of “that’s not what he meant” is no more difficult than reading the speech in total or even just the key quotes included here.

Now, let’s have a little fun and go a step further.  Let’s give the speech explainers the benefit of the doubt.  Let’s say we accept the two key clarification premises:

  1. He was referring to roads and bridges.
  2. The business would not be successful without roads and bridges.

OK, we’ll give you those…and you’re still wrong!  Why?  For three very important reasons.

First of all how do you Socialist-Obama-Warren-ites defend a notion that the business owner has contributed nothing to the very tax receipts used to build the roads and bridges when in fact they have borne the lion’s share of the burden by not only paying their own taxes but also providing for the taxes paid in by the employees who’ve contributed to and benefited from the businesses success???   Strike one.

Strike two is even more basic.  It’s based on the free market, capitalist, conservative sweethearts of supply and demand! Folks, roads and bridges did not come first.  There had to be an expectation of demand for access to the areas connected by the roads and bridges.  The expectation of need for those connections goes all the way back to ancient times and was always in response to expanding commerce.  The Great Silk Road across ancient Asia was not arbitrarily and benevolently built by government and then taken advantage of by business!!  Have you ever seen a road that did not fulfill the expectation of need or became unnecessary for commerce?  They revert back to fields pretty quickly, don’t they?  Many businesses have had to pay for their own access, first of all.  Second, no road or bridge has ever been built in response to a lack of expectation of the need for a road or bridge for commerce.  If it’s access to a business, it means the business had an expectation of the need for access by customers and employees.  If it is access to a residential area, it means there was an expectation that people would live there.  If people lived there, they would need a way to get to and from – wait for itWORK.  Ya see, that’s the best way to be able to keep living there.  Not through food stamps and government dependence.  Roads and bridges owe their existence to private commerce, not the other way around!

Government never “built” anything.  It used funds collected from everyone – successful business owners included – and compensated private companies pursuing profit and employing more people for the construction.  Guess what…the owners, managers and employees all contributed to the very tax receipts used to pay for the construction of the roads and bridges.  Strike three.

No matter how you cut it, the very idea that success has more to do with general societal and governmental support than it does with individual smarts, hard work and sacrifice is not defendable.  If it was, all of those other nations subscribing to that thinking would historically be as successful as the U.S.  They’re not.  Just ask Greece, Spain…

For the more simple socialist:

You may need an additional sports analogy to grasp these concepts.  O.K.

“Someone” had to build the sewers to capture the water that “someone” had to work in a facility to purify and pump to a faucet that could be used to fill a swimming pool.  Based on that set of facts are we going to discount (that means ignore) the superior competitive strategy (represents smart), sacrifice and training (represents hard work) and tell Mr. Phelps:

 “You didn’t swim that.  Someone else made that happen.”

Same argument.

Every effort is made to ensure accuracy of data transcription but accuracy cannot be guaranteed.  Referenced sources should be reviewed.  Any analysis represents the opinion of Blue World Asset Managers, Ltd. who does not warrant or guarantee predictions based on its analysis.

©Blue World Asset Managers, LTD Tuesday, August 21, 2012